Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.043632 0.049405 0.055829 0.063538 0.072581 0.082899 0.095636
2025-12-28 0.035293 0.042573 0.051329 0.062747 0.077403 0.095803 0.121008
2026-01-04 0.029888 0.038095 0.048667 0.063531 0.084288 0.112865 0.156306
2026-01-11 0.025336 0.033908 0.045653 0.063350 0.090116 0.130432 0.198530
2026-01-18 0.021706 0.030363 0.042915 0.063098 0.096062 0.150345 0.252540
2026-01-25 0.018384 0.026727 0.039439 0.061113 0.099109 0.167201 0.309837
2026-02-01 0.015488 0.023281 0.035686 0.057970 0.099644 0.180493 0.368367
2026-02-08 0.013679 0.021267 0.033893 0.057837 0.105791 0.207213 0.472214
2026-02-15 0.012206 0.019581 0.032374 0.057926 0.112643 0.238862 0.611714
2026-02-22 0.011065 0.018292 0.031345 0.058778 0.121617 0.280195 0.815044
2026-03-01 0.010064 0.017105 0.030306 0.059423 0.130602 0.327019 1.087494
2026-03-08 0.009003 0.015659 0.028539 0.058137 0.134708 0.363577 1.371642
2026-03-15 0.007775 0.013763 0.025630 0.053782 0.129921 0.372582 1.562960
2026-03-22 0.007123 0.012901 0.024719 0.053969 0.137991 0.430772 2.110218
2026-03-29 0.006643 0.012316 0.024309 0.055337 0.150403 0.515929 3.032156
2026-04-05 0.006150 0.011643 0.023594 0.055784 0.160447 0.602320 4.258535
2026-04-12 0.005704 0.011010 0.022874 0.056071 0.170408 0.700374 6.031588
2026-04-19 0.005217 0.010227 0.021683 0.054756 0.174269 0.774419 7.987068
2026-04-26 0.004727 0.009384 0.020223 0.052324 0.173014 0.821542 9.956062
2026-05-03 0.004423 0.008924 0.019645 0.052473 0.182583 0.949398 14.545153
2026-05-10 0.004157 0.008519 0.019147 0.052775 0.193274 1.104019 21.958320
2026-05-17 0.003944 0.008214 0.018861 0.053726 0.207798 1.316592 35.797626
2026-05-24 0.003741 0.007909 0.018532 0.054464 0.222081 1.560851 59.819661